I think you're on the right path, but looking too far ahead. It's going to take at least 20 years before this is an issue. Further, I don't think a lack of understanding the nuts and bolts will be the cause. Software Saturation. Once we have a set accepted standard software for the common tasks that people perform, there will be reduced demand for new software. Windows for OS, Office for productivity, Chrome/FF/IE for browser. These have reduced demand for new software in the area, and therefore you see less innovation.
There will always be projects. People need to do x a specific way. Tor browser is an example. Plugins for apps, API scripts, etc. These have resulted in millions of code snippets available open source on github, etc. What we have right now is cookbook copy/paste code saturation, and ultimately we will have plug and play pseudo programming languages. For anything you want to do in a program, there is someone who has already tried it. That's the whole purpose of the open source movement. (Also security)
Once we get to that point, plug and play programming, I don't think we will be stepping back. I think that's a step forward towards smart AI and computers that can program themselves.